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Percent, and in any way its increase. I at all do not see in all these theories

Any sense if only not to make a silent assumption that

Cumulative production is not capable to be changed. However the theory, which

Starts with an invariable level of production, obviously, it is not absolutely suitable for

Business cycle explanations.


In earlier researches of a business cycle, especially at Dzhevonsa, The cycle spoke without delay seasonal fluctuations in agriculture, than

The phenomena in the industry. In the light of the theory set forth above it is represented

Rather reasonable approach to the problem decision. Even presently fluctuations

Stockpiles of agricultural production during this or that Year is one of the major reasons of change of size flowing

Investments. And in those days, when wrote Dzhevons, - and especially to the period, to

To which the large part of its statistical data, - this factor concerned Should surpass far in the significance all the others.

The theory of Dzhevonsa that the business cycle is generated first of all Fluctuations in crop size, it is possible to state as follows. After the tax Especially big crop there is usually big increase passing on Next years of stocks. The gain from this gain of stocks increases

Current receipts of farmers also it is considered by them as the income. At the same time

The gain of stocks does not conduct to reduction of incomes or costs of other sectors

Economy, and it is financed from savings. Differently, increase

Carryover stocks there is an additive to current investments. This conclusion does not lose

Forces even if the prices sharply fall. In a similar way at a small harvest Carryover stocks are spent for current consumption, and, means,

The corresponding part of incomes or costs of consumers does not create the flowing

Incomes for farmers. Differently, that undertakes from carryover stocks, Means corresponding reduction of current investments. Thus, if

Investments under other articles are accepted for invariable, a difference in general

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