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When I look back at the last decades, I understand that The most part of my trouble was created by imagination. Jim Grant Has told to me that he too has endured it. It is the owner of firm "James A.Grant" in New York. Its firm is engaged in wholesale Oranges and grapefruits from Florida. Jim Grant will organise sending from Florida at once from ten to fifteen cars with fruit. He has told to me, That earlier usually tormented itself with such thoughts: "And suddenly will occur Train wreck? And what, if all my fruit is scattered? And that, if The bridge when my cars will move through it will fail? "It is final, Fruit has been insured. But he worried that if they will not be In time are delivered, it will lose the commodity market. He so worried, That began to suspect at itself a stomach ulcer and has addressed to the doctor. The doctor not Has found at it any illnesses, except for the loosened nerves. "Suddenly Upon me has dawned, - he told, - and I began to ask myself questions. I Has told to itself: "Listen, Jim Grant, how much cars with fruit you Delivered for all these years? "The answer was:" About twenty five thousand ". Then язадал to itself a question: "How much cars have suffered from wrecks?" The answer was: "Probably, five". Then I have told to myself: "Only five of twenty five Thousand? You know, what does it mean? The relation: five thousand to one! In other words, under the law of great numbers based on experience, chances: That one of your cars will suffer, make five thousand to one. So about what to you to worry?"Then I have told to myself: "But after all the bridge can fail!" Then I have asked Itself: "Really, how much cars you have lost that has failed The bridge? "The answer was:" Any ". Then I have told to myself:" Really to you not It is a shame to lead up itself to a stomach ulcer trouble because of the bridge, which Never fell. And as to railway accident, Chances make five thousand against one!"
Having looked at all it in a similar way, I have understood, how I am silly myself Conducted. During the same moment I have decided to stop to worry and always to apply The law of great numbers. Since then I have forgotten about the stomach ulcer ".
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